Can Apple Continue To Post Blow-Away Earnings In 2012? Sure

January 25th, 2012

Still getting my head around the absolutely huge earnings numbers just revealed by Apple. MG Siegler’s recent post over at TechCrunch puts things into mind-blowing perspective: Apple’s profits alone exceeded Google’s entire revenue for the quarter. And Apple’s iTunes Store profit alone (which is almost a footnote to all the iOS activity) was bigger than all of Yahoo!‘s revenue. It’s stunning.

And of course, the cynical wonder if this was a fluke quarter. But looking forward to what Apple may have in store for 2012 — I believe this torrid, almost exponential growth can continue.

First, even if Apple plays it totally safe, we have iPad 3 early this year and iPhone 5 in the summer. The killer earnings of last quarter were for iPad 2 — a product nearly a year old. So: iPad 3 — even with incremental upgrades like a retina display and better camera — could seriously continue to dominate throughout 2012. Add something extra like 4G, and all bets are off.

Then we have iPhone 5. Consider that the hot-selling iPhone 4S was an incremental upgrade — the same case design as the iPhone 4 and a mere incremental speed bump like the iPhone 3G to iPhone 3GS (even I called it “disappointing”). So if an incremental upgrade resulted in last quarter — well, I can’t begin to imagine what a new iPhone 5 release will do. Even the safe bets — a slightly larger screen, a new case design will see huge demand. Add in 4G or NFC and again — all bets are off.

And this speculation doesn’t include improvements to the entire Mac line. Or iCloud. Lion. Or the possibility of an Apple TV proper. Or an entirely new, secret product.

But to sum up: here’s a final thought that didn’t even cross my mind until recently. Looking back over all of 2011, the only Apple hardware we purchased was the spouse’s Verizon iPhone (we got an iPad 2 as a gift). The last Mac I bought was a MacBook Air in late 2010; same with the latest Apple TV. So basically, in terms of Apple hardware, 2011 was a wash — I contributed essentially nothing to Apple’s killer earnings all year.

Which means — even if Apple sticks to incremental upgrades, in 2012 I can already see purchasing the iPad 3, iPhone 5 (my iPhone 4 contract will end just in time), probably a new Mac Mini and MacBook Air, and an Apple TV (whatever form it takes) — five hardware products — possibly more than I’ve spent in an entire year on Apple products ever.

To sum up: 2011 was actually rather light in terms of new hardware, yet Apple still knocked it out of the park. Therefore — at the risk of being proven wrong later this year — I can seriously see how they can push things even further in 2012.