On Apple’s Earnings

October 19th, 2011

Apple announced record-breaking earnings, showing huge growth in iPad and Mac sales (166% more iPads and 26% more Macs over last year), but sold slightly less iPhones than anticipated (about 17 million with expectations of 20 million) — resulting in a rare earnings miss in regards to stock analysts. Stock price is down about 4% today.

I believe this situation will play out similarly to the “disappointment” surrounding the iPhone 4S — some had high expectations of an iPhone 5 or “one more thing” to definitively blow away the competition. Similarly, the stock analysts and amateurs had really high expectations for Apple’s earnings. Yet right now, we’re staring to hear about staggering iPhone 4S sales estimates — four million in the first weekend of sales, and possibly on track to the hottest selling electronic gadget ever (surpassing the iPad and Microsoft’s Kinect, for those keeping score).

So how this may play out: both Apple fans and analysts slightly lower their expectations going into the next Apple announcement and quarter. Then Apple announces the iPad 3, “true” iPhone 5 and killer earnings from this holiday season.

Things are being put in place to blow the doors off a few months from now. At least, that’s my “expectation.”

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