The Social Network Wars
The debut of Google+ marks a new phase in tech — a platform war between Facebook and Google. Just like the ongoing battle between Android vs. iOS, and the battles of old between Microsoft vs. Netscape, and Mac vs. Windows. No other way to see it, really.
In the months if not years to come, we’ll see each Google and Facebook try to outdo the other with new features (beginning with Facebook announcing something “awesome” next week) and other tactics - they’ll copy features, trumpet the competing product’s weaknesses, make shameless grabs for each others users, acquire companies that may make them stronger, or sue each other. There will be collateral damage, uneasy alliances, buggy releases, user bribes, etc.
(What might Facebook’s new “awesome” feature be? My personal hope is something involving video or Netflix. Facebook as Netflix’s social strategy has been rumored for a while, plus Netflix CEO reed Hastings was recently added to Facebook’s board of directors. But I’d be happy with an iPad app).
The winner will be declared when their web traffic and time spent on site clearly bests the other. Google+ must have a significant, measurable effect on Facebook’s domination of the web. Yeah that’s a high bar, but when you really get down to it — this is the purpose of Google+ — a Facebook competitor. Anything less should be deemed a failure.
So although I’m enjoying Google+ and think it’s technically very solid … count me as personally skeptical of Google’s chances in catching up to Facebook. World War II taught us the danger of a two-front war, and not unlike Hitler deciding to invade Russia, Google has challenged Facebook while they’re still fighting Apple over iOS, and Microsoft over other things (Bing, Google Apps).
(Google could have had Apple as an ally in challenging Facebook, but due to the whole Android thing, I don’t expect to see Google+ integrated into iOS like Twitter any time soon).
And yeah, I just compared Google to Nazi Germany. But hey — this is war.