WWDC 2008 Aftermath

June 10th, 2008

First off, these were my predictions written late Sunday night, followed by notes on how correct or incorrect I was:

Announcement of the 3G iPhone, 16 GB standard, subsidized by AT&T to $199. It will have GPS and a better camera. There will be no 32 GB model. The iPhone 2 will be announced for pre-ordering but actual availability will be June 29.
Right: 3G iPhone was announced, price subsidized to $199, GPS, no 32 GB, and not being available today.
Wrong: 16 GB standard – actual model is 8 GB, camera is the same, and even my proposed date of June 29 (anniversary of the original iPhone) was too optimistic as the actual release date is July 11.
Apple will discuss the “two bridges” in the invite: developing for OS X now means the desktop and mobile devices. They’ll make it easy for developers to code for both. It will be hinted that Apple will have other mobile devices other than the iPhone and iPod Touch (Tablet Mac), but nothing concrete will be announced.
Right: Making development easy for developers, no Tablet.
Wrong: No reference to the two bridges, no hints at future mobile products.
iPhone App Store goes live. Expect talk and demos of cool apps developed by people outside of Apple.
Right: Talk and demos of cool new iPhone apps.
Wrong: iPhone App Store goes live.
Rebranding .Mac as “Mobile Me,” providing cool stuff for your iPhone, like getting your data off your Mac and onto your iPhone.
Right: Everything.
10.6 will be a maintenance update and available for Intel and PowerPC. Jobs will mention the Intel adoption rate is moving faster than expected, just now crossing 50%, and will hint that PowerPC support will be dropped for 10.7 in 2010.
Right: 10.6 is a maintenance update.
Wrong: No mention of Intel adoption rate or PowerPC support being dropped for 10.7.
(One surprise) The Mac Fusion.
Wrong: Everything.

Total: Right 10, Wrong 8.

Even after scaling back my expectations and remaining skeptical of most rumors, I wasn’t pessimistic enough on the release date being as far forward as July or keeping the iPhone at 8GB. I also fell for the “Mac Fusion,” which in retrospect was fairly silly. My only excuse is the rumor came through so close to the keynote, plus had that “so odd it could be true” name like the now-factual “Mobile Me” and “Snow Leopard.”

As a general rule, hype and rumors are consistently ahead of the actuality. It’s worth remembering the WWDC is a developer’s conference which limits the sort of stuff Apple will announce – more consumer-facing stuff is reserved for MacWorld. Second, Apple has been in a pattern of being slightly behind what people want, ever since the Leopard delay. And lastly, just because something is technologically possible (Tablet) doesn’t mean Apple will create that product. There has to be a business case made and Apple also insists on doing every new product to the best of its ability – which takes time.

Now some thoughts on the stuff announced:

iPhone 2.0 3G

Definitely everything as I expected, with a list of features is solid enough with 3G, GPS, and improved battery life in particular. The icing on the cake is the reduced (subsidized) price of $199 – the level of an impulse buy for many consumers – even those on a budget.

My only disappointment is there wasn’t a more expensive 32 GB version, which would eliminate my iPod Video completely.

In the larger scheme of things, iPhone 2 is a far-reaching business strategy, for Apple to create their next big hit post iPod. To make this succeed they’re leveraging their knowledge in all their other successes: iPods, the Mac, and now .Mac (renamed Mobile Me). Groundwork is also being laid for a new revenue stream of software content, the useful apps and games that are particularly suited for the iPhone. And this would be in addition to sales of music and videos through the iTunes Store. Pricing the iPhone as low as possible is only the first step, to get millions of those devices into people’s hands to create a gigantic installed base.

Mobile Me

The “rebranding” of .Mac to leverage the iPhone is smart, too. I used to be a .Mac user, but personally didn’t find it worth the $99 a month. It seemed like a mish-mash of semi-useful stuff. But adding the iPhone into the equation is a whole ‘nother thing entirely, since it’s a truly mobile device with a web connection where “sync” is worth paying extra for. The push email alone seems super intriguing. Suddenly, all the additional things Mobile Me can be used for (photo albums, Back to My Mac, iSync, iDisk) seems like bonus features, and yet another $100 bill flies out of my wallet and down to Cupertino.

Snow Leopard

I’m not too keen on this announcement. The more I ponder it, it sounds like marketing spin for Apple not having a full-fledged version to offer us in January. I think this is continuing fallout from the Leopard delay due to the iPhone taking priority a year ago. Luckily, I doubt Microsoft will catch up with Vista anytime soon.

Conclusion

All in all, Apple delivered pretty much what I expected, and I’m looking forward to getting the $199 version ASAP. Now I just have to figure out which store to hit and when.

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