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Facebook, Facebook, Facebook

September 26th, 2007

Unsubstantiated rumor says that Microsoft is considering a large investment in Facebook that would put the value of the Web 2.0 social networking darling north of $10 billion. Any company is worth whatever someone will pay for it, but I’ll play the game of opining whether or not Facebook is “worth” that pile of clams:

Pro Facebook:

  • The Facebook buzz is nuts. Last year was YouTube, YouTube, YouTube, this it’s Facebook, Facebook, Facebook.
  • Compared to YouTube, Facebook has utility and productivity potential.
  • A micro-economy is forming around Facebook, just as one sprang up around eBay.
  • It’s closer to the web-centric, frictionless money making system of Google. Meaning, there aren’t any physical products being sold, or huge bandwidth fees serving up video like YouTube. Facebook is all about the data – information.
  • After the Web 1.0 implosion only a handful Internet companies emerged unscathed – but those that did saw their fortunes soar. I’m talking about eBay, Amazon, Yahoo! and Google. Survival meant a chance to flourish. Very few thought Google and their IPO would succeed to the point where it is now. If there is a recession and downturn for Web 2.0, the leader is Facebook. All the other leading Web 2.0 companies (flickr, YouTube, MySpace – have already been acquired).

Nay Facebook:

Yahoo!, Microsoft, or Google

I think Yahoo! is under other pressures that will ultimately keep them from purchasing Facebook. Yahoo! was rumored to buy Facebook for $1 billion just last year (didn’t do it) supposedly failed to acquire YouTube because they weren’t moving fast enough. So I don’t think Yahoo! is in the running for Facebook.

Facebook could very well go it alone, IPO, and attempt to be the next Google post 2.0. But I’m thinking Google or Microsoft don’t really want that to happen.

So I see three ways this will go:

  • Google will try to make a go at building their own social network, meanwhile Microsoft will purchase Facebook – and so completely screw up the acquisition that Facebook will drag the company down – AOL redux, and in a few years people will wonder why Microsoft paid so much. Meanwhile, Google gains traction with their own social network plans.
  • Google will try to make a go at building their own social network, which won’t gain traction – so Google makes an offer for Facebook so insane that people will shake their heads in disbelief. Google will integrate Facebook decently in one more push towards Google domination.
  • Facebook sticks it out alone, barely survives the downturn, goes IPO – and sometime around 2017, purchases Yahoo!.

Yeah I’m probably a little nuts with that last point, but back in 1997 did you *really* think Google would be where it is today?

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  • I agree with most points in the article except this one:
    "Does Facebook have mainstream appeal? It proved its worth with the college set, but I’m not sure if I ever see my mom signing up for Facebook (wheras many oldsters get YouTube)."

    Facebook gets upwards of 25 million returning users on a daily basis. What's more important to point out though, is that most of Facebook's users will be out of college in just a few years -- 50% already are. What this means is that an entire 'generation' of users who are *not* of college age are going to remain on Facebook. One may argue that as college ties (friendships, etc.) are severed, said ties on Facebook will also be severed. But, I will argue this will not be the case. Facebook, as a social utility -- THE social utility of the modern internet -- if you don't count email, has enabled its users to maintain those ties through its 'social graph.' It is no secret that the average user in the set of 25 million daily returning users spends over 30 minutes on Facebook per visit. Social capital on Facebook is like on no other site; from events to groups to being the largest photo-bearing-and-sharing site on the net, Facebook binds the nodes on its social graph with edges that are razor sharp.

    So, although you may be right that the older demographic (35+) may not be signing up for a Facebook account any time soon, the current generation of Facebook users will mature. On a different note, current MySpace users (10+ yrs. of age), who are not Facebook members already, will soon realize what they are missing -- I did. The MySpace account I have, I check once a month, only to delete the endless unsolicited friend invitations from girls who want me to pay them money for a web-cam strip show -- sex workers' social utility, maybe -- MY social utility -- definitely not.
  • Hi Alex, I agree with your assessment. I guess I'm wondering if Facebook's strategy is to stick with the college demographic (that will get older) or if they're going to try to push towards a more mainstream (older) audience. I think they have some work to do on the latter if that is their strategy.

    Your mention of people moving from MySpace to Facebook I agree with. When I first checked out Facebook, my initial impression was that of a MySpace that actually worked like it was supposed to.
  • I think that Facebook is starting to push towards a more mainstream audience. This is evident in their latest move to open registration to anyone with an email address. Prior to this, their initial step towards openness to a broader demographic, was to open registrations to users with corporate emails.

    Also, according to some statistics published by FB staff, lots of its *new* users are Canadians and quite a few are from London:
    Canada
    http://blog.facebook.com/blog.php?post=2398302130
    London
    http://blog.facebook.com/blog.php?post=5883272130

    I'd bet that most of those users are indeed out of college/university, and are simply joining their regional networks, also provided by Facebook prior to the complete opening of their registration to all users.
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