The Best Of Times, The Worst Of Times

July 20th, 2007

Seems like we’re living in an odd time where certain things are booming while others are imploding. This Forbes article points out how while there’s a technology boom going on, old media is eating it.

The stock market hits new highs day after day while the air leaking out of the housing bubble threatens to drag the entire economy down with it. For each example of gluttony and excess (rich are getting richer) there’s another indicating the end of the world (dollar getting weaker, peak oil).

I thought I would revisit my 2007 “boom” vs. “doom” predictions (once again) and see how this year has shaped up so far:

Boom:

• My prediction of a “new Internet Boom” hitting the cover of magazines seems only to have nabbed Newsweek. I’ve seen a few boom in Silicon Valley type articles though. Yet still, Red Herring and Business 2.0 aren’t doing so well. Result: Meh.
• Google stock hits $1,000 a share. Nope. After the slight earnings miss it looks like it will test $500. Result: Meh.
• Businesses centered around other Web 2.0 sites: Facebook widget companies. Result: Boom.
• A huge new media company buys a huge old media one. News Corp buying Dow Jones is pretty close. I’m feeling a bit generous. Result: Boom.
• This blog begins to have business potential. I haven’t monetized this too well but recent signs point up. Not enough to get me to quit the day job though. Result: Meh.

Doom:

• Not enough users to sustain the number of companies: I’m definitely seeing more social networking fatigue, but the number of users making the Internet a daily part of their lives I think will keep rising. Result: Meh.
• The housing slowdown is currently readying the noose for the economy. I’m leaning towards this getting nastier. Result: Doom.
• The dollar hasn’t crashed but it keeps hitting new lows. Result: Doom.

The tally:

• Boom: 2
• Meh: 4
• Doom: 2

Sounds about right to me. I have one hand in the sock puppet and while the other one is preparing the fallout shelter.