Lance Says Bubble and Doom, Meanwhile, Bubble Signs Abound

June 22, 2007

Doom

This is surely link bait but I’ll bite. Thanks to Tinker X for directing me to this article, titled “MySpace, Second Life, and Twitter Are Doomed“.

The author makes the key mistake of choosing a specific date for all three sites to fail. He says: “before the end of this decade.” That’s only a few years away. Advice for prognosticators: if you set an exact date that will come to pass before your death, odds are you’ll get it wrong.

I’ll agree MySpace is huge, ugly and unmonitored – I personally can’t use it. But looking like garbage is no barrier to success (AOL? Some think Craigslist looks bad, too). The problem with MySpace isn’t how crappy it looks or this totally lame argument of predators skulking around (the entire Internet is full of loonies). It’s FaceBook: a better website that gets users to move on. And the speculation and hype around FaceBook recently surpassed that of MySpace.

But MySpace is still a huge destination, and its fade will be a slow trickle. If things get really bad it might be sold to some other company. Either way, it will die a long, slow, painful death. But by the end of the decade? Heck no.

The author’s complaints about Twitter are even less coherent. I don’t think he’s really spent time and seen its many uses: sharing links, spreading breaking news, and driving traffic to their sites. I recently realized you could add your Twitter feed to Technorati. It’s certainly a lot more than just haiku and inane babbling.

My main reason for being pro-Twitter is it’s super easy to use. String a few words together and you can participate. With its character limit, it also forces the more verbose of us to get to the point.

(As for Second Life, I politely defer my opinion on that one.)

Setting a date of 2010 is a bad move here. And as for the general tone of the whole article, it sure seems like there are some overly pessimistic, negative, and uninformed technology journalists sulking around these days. I thought that stuff was the realm of bloggers.

Boom

Meanwhile, the bubblicious signs are bleating more loudly. Business.com is supposedly attracting $300 – $400 million. That seems awfully high considering YouTube was sold for a few times more than that. A million bucks seems to be something on the order of spare change for some these days. I can already hear Dr. Evil upping his demands to the trillions.

Then I see that Casey Serin is being offered $100,000 for his I Am Facing Foreclosure Blog. If anybody should take advantage of this bubble stuff and cash out, it’s him. That amount of cash for a controversial blog should make everyone’s ears prick up. Sweet links!