Eh, read this blog article about the supposed Ten Things That Will Happen to TV and Newspapers and think it’s a bit too pie-in-the-sky for what will actually transpire. First off, what’s the time frame for these predicitons? 5 years? 10 years? 100 years?

I definitely agree that people are moving online to get their information and entertainment, and this media now includes video and user-created content. It’s clear now that the tools for creating rich media are no longer under lock and key at large corporations. The doors are being blasted open; anybody with a computer can write, create music, create video, and distribute it over the internet at a relatively minimal cost. Video Podcasts like Tiki Bar, Rocketboom, and Ask a Ninja are all produced for next to nothing and still attract thousands of viewers.

My question however, is there is a limit to how far user created media can go, because there is a limit to how many users actually want to be creators. Even the bare minimum of rating stories, submitting links, and commenting on what is already out there takes desire and effort. The vast majority of the general public isn’t actively creative. They are receivers of passive entertainment: turn on the TV (or open up a paper, load your favorite website) and enjoy what you get.

There is a second, smaller group that enjoys involvement but not to the point where they have to actually come up with anything original, either through lack of talent, time, or personality. I think this group is largely content with video games and also is responsible for the YouTube lip-synching videos, lightsaber fights, and apeing scenes from favorite movies. They are participatory but not really creating anything original or interesting in the long run.

The last group, the content creators that this whole glorious user-created future rides on, is in the minority. I seriously doubt you could give just anybody a camera and create the next Ask a Ninja. It takes a combination of talent and drive, just as it always has. It’s just easier if you are a creator or someone on the other side looking for fresh, original entertainment.

One only need look at the vast amount of creative product on YouTube and realize that very few have a scripted, coherent dramatic drive to put them even in the same league dramatically from current network TV. Lost is vastly different from Lonelygirl15. The former will never go away, and I daresay the competition of this cheaply made user content is making the old-school networks try harder at making quality shows. It’s hard work, and requires a group effort of hundreds of creative people to pull it off. It’s just that now, the latter, cheaper form of entertainment exists and appeals to a niche market that is excited about it since the production costs are no longer prohibitive. But to say the user-created stuff of YouTube will someday obliterate the polished, mass-produced, marketed stuff on ABC is really too ambitious.

So to sum up, I’ll just suggest that the future of media will pretty much look like today, except there will be more out there, and more of it will be accessible in different formats and methods. Any bizarre niche interest you’re into, there is a world to discover. But the vast majority has no interest in getting involved, and that’s just a personality thing. Creativity will still be in the hands of a tiny minority. Big corporate media will always control the chess board with their pools of money, power, and talent. They will likely set up their own (or buy) versions of YouTube and Web 2.0 user-created goodness well before anyone else can get their act together and pose a real threat.

There will just be a few more interesting pieces in play as the masses watch from the sidelines.

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