Suddenly there’s an Apple special event on September 12 (next week) and predictions are flying about. It’s pretty much a given there will be updated iPod Nanos and iPods, definitely with larger storage. But there’s almost certain to be more announcements, and most rumor sites are predicting an Apple movie download service, via iTunes. The price point being bandied about is $9.99 for a movie. In conjunction to this service might be a new hardware device, something that in conjunction with Airport Express would let you watch your downloaded films on a television. Some even more ambitious predictions link said device with a Mac Mini to allow Tivo-esque PVR functionality.

I’ll make two slightly altered predictions (in addition to the iPod refresh which is a no-brainer):

1). “Showtime” is the name of the software and its associated service. I don’t think Apple would just stick with iTunes Movie Store. Showtime will be a major iTunes refresh or a new application entirely, with the idea that people catalog films differently from music (cast, director, studio, etc.) and so Apple developed new software just for video management and playback.

2). The unnamed hardware device will be essentially a glorified iPod dock combined with an update to Airport Express. It will be designed as something to fit in with an existing home theater component set up, network wirelessly, and support surround sound via digital optical out. In addition to playing media streaming over a network, you can also plug in an iPod and play its content on whatever stereo or TV is hooked up to said unnamed device (perhaps called Showtime also). This strategy will keep iPods selling, plus you can carry around your pictures and videos and play them at someone else’s house without the dorky cable.

Lastly, I’m quite skeptical that Apple can get movie quality video playing over a network, especially with surround sound, so I really hope they position the movie download idea as a rental service. I’d be willing to forgive lack of extra DVD features and lower quality picture and audio if the price point were low enough. I think for movies I’d like to own, there’s no question I’d prefer a physical DVD for the price. However, most of my movie consumption is rentals, which are watch once and forget, so I think there is a business here. It really comes down to price point for me, and I’m hoping for $4.99 a download.

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